Kevin Warsh’s debut meeting as Fed Chair gave markets a hawkish hold. The policy rate was left unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%, but the accompanying statement was pointedly firm. Activity remains solid, uncertainty is elevated because of the Middle East conflict, and inflation is still above target, partly on energy-related supply shocks. The June projections reinforced a higher-for-longer stance, with the median end-2026 fed funds rate at 3.8% and the 2027 figure at 3.6%. Warsh also made clear he favours less choreography and more genuine data dependence, effectively reducing forward guidance further.
For Bitcoin, this produces a mixed picture. Higher real-rate expectations remain a headwind for liquidity-sensitive assets, so the market’s initial hawkish interpretation was reasonable. The structural case, however, is more durable. Persistent inflation, policy uncertainty and a central bank that now signals less and reacts more all continue to strengthen Bitcoin’s longer-term monetary argument. The short-term macro impulse is restrictive, but the case for Bitcoin as an alternative monetary asset is not fading.
The most notable feature of the week was resilience. US equities took the initial shock, with the S&P 500 down about 1.2% and the Nasdaq about 1.3%. Bitcoin fell 1.6%. That is not strong price action in absolute terms, but it is firmer than many would have expected given a hawkish reset and a deliberate step back from policy signalling. Crypto, in short, absorbed the news better than anticipated.
Flows may also be turning a corner. Global digital asset ETP outflows slowed to US$149M across all issuers, a marked improvement on the prior two full weekly readings. This does not amount to a clean bullish reversal, but it suggests the worst of the forced de-risking may be passing.
Market structure is the other story of the week. Ahead of the SpaceX IPO, the SPCX perpetual on Hyperliquid traded more than US$1.3B in 24-hour volume. The platform’s broader pre-IPO perpetual complex now carries roughly US$291M in open interest and US$6B in cumulative volume since launch. That matters because it shows on-chain venues becoming genuine engines of price discovery for assets that traditional markets either ration heavily or do not price continuously.
For advisers, the message is one of cautious constructiveness rather than renewed pessimism. The Middle East conflict remains the principal source of the elevated uncertainty the Fed cited, and a less prescriptive chair leaves markets more dependent on incoming data than on guidance. Bitcoin remains exposed to rate repricing, and Warsh’s communication style could raise volatility across risk assets. Even so, the combination of relative resilience, sharply improved flow momentum and the rapid expansion of venues like Hyperliquid argues against capitulation. This is not a moment for over-optimism, but neither is it a moment to retreat.