{"id":1073,"date":"2026-02-23T06:01:52","date_gmt":"2026-02-23T06:01:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/coinshares.citywire.com\/?p=1073"},"modified":"2026-02-23T08:40:23","modified_gmt":"2026-02-23T08:40:23","slug":"comment-valoriser-bitcoin-un-cadre-danalyse-pour-les-professionnels","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coinshares.citywire.com\/fr\/comment-valoriser-bitcoin-un-cadre-danalyse-pour-les-professionnels\/","title":{"rendered":"Comment valoriser Bitcoin : un cadre d\u2019analyse pour les professionnels"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Le Bitcoin ne verse ni dividendes ni b\u00e9n\u00e9fices. Les m\u00e9thodes de valorisation traditionnelles ne s\u2019appliquent donc pas dans son cas. Pour les conseillers financiers confront\u00e9s aux questions des clients, cela pose un d\u00e9fi : comment d\u00e9terminer si l\u2019actif est justement valoris\u00e9, sur\u00e9valu\u00e9 ou s\u2019il dispose encore d\u2019un potentiel de hausse ? <\/p>\n\n

Il n\u2019existe pas de r\u00e9ponse unique, mais plusieurs cadres d\u2019analyse se sont impos\u00e9s comme points de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence utiles. Les comprendre ne mettra pas certainement fin \u00e0 tous les d\u00e9bats, mais permet aux conseillers financiers de disposer d\u2019une base solide pour des \u00e9changes \u00e9clair\u00e9s. <\/p>\n\n

Le mod\u00e8le d\u2019adoption<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n

Une premi\u00e8re approche consiste \u00e0 consid\u00e9rer le Bitcoin comme un v\u00e9hicule d\u2019\u00e9pargne mondial et \u00e0 le valoriser en fonction du nombre d\u2019utilisateurs et des montants de leur allocation.<\/p>\n\n

Le mod\u00e8le d\u2019adoption de l\u2019\u00e9pargne de CoinShares estime qu\u2019environ 560 millions de personnes d\u00e9tiennent aujourd\u2019hui du Bitcoin dans le monde, les \u00c9tats-Unis, l\u2019Inde et la Chine figurant parmi les principaux march\u00e9s. Le mod\u00e8le suppose que les d\u00e9tenteurs allouent une faible part de leur revenu disponible \u2014 moins de 1 % \u2014 et applique un multiplicateur conservateur pour traduire ces flux en croissance de la capitalisation. <\/p>\n\n

Sur la base de ces hypoth\u00e8ses, le mod\u00e8le projette un prix plancher d\u2019environ 317 000$ d\u2019ici 2029. Ce chiffre ne constitue pas un objectif de cours, mais un point de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence issu de tendances d\u2019adoption quantifiables. Si les taux d\u2019allocation augmentent, par exemple de moins de 1 % \u00e0 1,5 %, les r\u00e9sultats \u00e9voluent en cons\u00e9quence. <\/p>\n\n

L\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat de ce cadre r\u00e9side dans son ancrage dans des donn\u00e9es observables : croissance des portefeuilles, flux vers les ETP, taux de d\u00e9tention issus d\u2019enqu\u00eates. Il met \u00e9galement en lumi\u00e8re le r\u00f4le des march\u00e9s \u00e9mergents, o\u00f9 l\u2019instabilit\u00e9 mon\u00e9taire et des infrastructures financi\u00e8res limit\u00e9es ont favoris\u00e9 une adoption plus rapide que dans les \u00e9conomies d\u00e9velopp\u00e9es. <\/p>\n\n

\"Modèle<\/figure>\n\n

Le mod\u00e8le de part de march\u00e9<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n

Une seconde approche consiste \u00e0 se demander quelle part des actifs mon\u00e9taires mondiaux le Bitcoin pourrait capter.<\/p>\n\n

Cette approche dite du \u00ab march\u00e9 total adressable \u00bb (TAM) compare le Bitcoin \u00e0 l\u2019or (22 000 milliards de dollars), \u00e0 la masse mon\u00e9taire mondiale au sens large (119 000 milliards), aux r\u00e9serves des banques centrales (17 000 milliards) et aux tr\u00e9soreries d\u2019entreprises (6 000 milliards). M\u00eame une p\u00e9n\u00e9tration limit\u00e9e de ces r\u00e9servoirs impliquerait un potentiel de hausse significatif. <\/p>\n\n

Aux niveaux de prix actuels, le Bitcoin repr\u00e9sente environ 1 % de l\u2019ensemble de ces march\u00e9s combin\u00e9s. La question devient alors la suivante : cette part est-elle appel\u00e9e \u00e0 cro\u00eetre ? <\/p>\n\n

Les partisans de cette th\u00e8se mettent en avant des vents porteurs structurels \u2014 niveaux d\u2019endettement souverain, volatilit\u00e9 de l\u2019inflation, politisation des r\u00e9serves en dollars \u2014 susceptibles d\u2019orienter les investisseurs vers des alternatives neutres et non souveraines. Les sceptiques soulignent, \u00e0 l\u2019inverse, que le Bitcoin demeure trop volatil et insuffisamment encadr\u00e9 pour jouer un r\u00f4le cr\u00e9dible d\u2019actif de r\u00e9serve. <\/p>\n\n

Ce cadre d\u2019analyse ne tranche pas le d\u00e9bat, mais il en pr\u00e9cise les enjeux. Une captation de 2 % des actifs mon\u00e9taires impliquerait un prix sup\u00e9rieur \u00e0 200 000 dollars par Bitcoin. Une part de 5 % porterait cette estimation nettement plus haut. <\/p>\n\n

Ce qui distingue le Bitcoin<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n

Les deux mod\u00e8les reposent sur un postulat commun : le Bitcoin pr\u00e9sente des caract\u00e9ristiques qui le distinguent des actifs traditionnels.<\/p>\n\n

Son offre est plafonn\u00e9e \u00e0 21 millions d\u2019unit\u00e9s \u2014 un seuil qui ne peut \u00eatre modifi\u00e9 par les banques centrales ou les gouvernements. Son r\u00e9seau fonctionne avec une disponibilit\u00e9 quasi parfaite depuis 2009, s\u00e9curis\u00e9 par une infrastructure d\u00e9centralis\u00e9e, r\u00e9sistante \u00e0 la saisie et \u00e0 la censure. Il peut \u00eatre transf\u00e9r\u00e9 instantan\u00e9ment \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9chelle mondiale, sans interm\u00e9diaire. <\/p>\n\n

Ces caract\u00e9ristiques ne garantissent pas son succ\u00e8s, mais elles expliquent pourquoi le Bitcoin attire une part croissante de l\u2019\u00e9pargne mondiale \u2014 et pourquoi l\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat institutionnel s\u2019est acc\u00e9l\u00e9r\u00e9 depuis l\u2019approbation des ETF au comptant aux \u00c9tats-Unis.<\/p>\n\n

\"Bitcoin<\/figure>\n\n

Ce que cela signifie pour les conseillers financiers<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n

Valoriser le Bitcoin n\u2019est pas comparable \u00e0 la valorisation des actions. Il n\u2019existe ni ratio cours\/b\u00e9n\u00e9fices ni flux de tr\u00e9sorerie actualis\u00e9s. Cela ne signifie toutefois pas que cet exercice soit purement sp\u00e9culatif. <\/p>\n\n

Les mod\u00e8les fond\u00e9s sur l\u2019adoption et la part de march\u00e9 offrent des cadres structur\u00e9s pour appr\u00e9hender le potentiel du Bitcoin. Ils ne permettent pas d\u2019anticiper le prix du prochain trimestre, mais ils aident les conseillers \u00e0 replacer l\u2019actif dans un cadre d\u2019allocation plus large. <\/p>\n\n

Choisir de ne pas allouer au Bitcoin constitue en soi une position : celle de parier sur une stagnation, voire un recul, de sa part au sein des actifs mon\u00e9taires mondiaux. Un pari audacieux, alors que la richesse se transf\u00e8re progressivement vers des g\u00e9n\u00e9rations n\u00e9es avec le num\u00e9rique, de plus en plus enclines \u00e0 adopter les actifs digitaux. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Le Bitcoin ne g\u00e9n\u00e8re pas nativement dei flux de tr\u00e9sorerie, mais il est possible de l\u2019\u00e9valuer. De sa raret\u00e9 aux courbes d\u2019adoption, voici comment les analystes le mod\u00e9lisent. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":1072,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"off","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","iawp_total_views":226,"footnotes":""},"categories":[34],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1073","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bitcoin"],"yoast_head":"\nComment valoriser Bitcoin : un cadre d\u2019analyse pour les professionnels - Citywire | CoinShares<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/coinshares.citywire.com\/fr\/comment-valoriser-bitcoin-un-cadre-danalyse-pour-les-professionnels\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Comment valoriser Bitcoin : un cadre d\u2019analyse pour les professionnels - Citywire | CoinShares\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Le Bitcoin ne g\u00e9n\u00e8re pas nativement dei flux de tr\u00e9sorerie, mais il est possible de l\u2019\u00e9valuer. 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